Independent Technical Analysis: HF Propagation & Space Weather

Overview

This page collates a set of independent technical analysis tools and reports focused on HF radio propagation and its relationship to space-weather drivers.

The work combines live data ingestion, automated processing, exploratory time-series analysis, and interactive visualisation to study complex, real-world systems that are inherently noisy, non-stationary, and not amenable to controlled experimentation.

While the subject matter is amateur radio, the emphasis throughout is on analytical method, data interpretation, and decision-support visualisation rather than radio operation itself.

Key analytical themes

Automated ingestion and validation of heterogeneous live data sources
Time-series analysis under irregular sampling and incomplete coverage
Correlation assessment with external drivers (solar and geomagnetic indices)
Visualisation designed to support interpretation and operational decisions
Iterative hypothesis testing and refinement based on observed behaviour

Note on page size and performance

Several dashboards and reports intentionally include large, high-resolution datasets. While payloads are compressed for efficient delivery, client-side rendering may still exceed 10–20 MB of active data. This can cause noticeable latency on older hardware. This is a deliberate trade-off in favour of analytical completeness and transparency rather than pre-filtered summaries.

Project components

Operational & Situational Awareness Tools

Space Weather Mood live interpretation

Interpretive visualisation layer that synthesises live solar and interplanetary measurements into a time-windowed qualitative state. Multiple upstream parameters are reduced through rule-based scoring and then rendered as a custom animated visual model, using symbolic motion and intensity changes to communicate evolving system conditions more intuitively than raw telemetry alone.

Propagation & Mode Forecast Report report

Integrated operator-focused report combining solar indices, HF band conditions, mode guidance, and short-term outlooks.

Solar & Space Weather (cached SWPC feeds) context

Locally cached space-weather context (GOES X-ray, Kp, and solar-wind parameters) used as upstream drivers for propagation analysis and incident timelines.

D-Layer Absorption & Space-Weather Monitor live monitoring

GOES X-ray–driven absorption index translated into a band-by-band HF impact view for rapid assessment of degradation risk.

International Beacon Project — Live Announcer automation

Timing-synchronised beacon tracking and path interpretation tool, combining scripting, scheduling logic, and propagation heuristics.

PSK Reporter — Live Dashboard live monitoring

Rolling reception/spot dashboard for situational awareness and band/path behaviour, fed by automated ingestion and caching.

Activity 'Nowcast' (live) live

Real-time geographic distribution and directional shift of current spots, highlighting emerging path changes and short-term propagation swings.

Analytical & Exploratory Dashboards

Observational Notes: HF Propagation & Space-Weather Behaviour observations

Evidence-led observational notes documenting non-ideal and counter-intuitive HF propagation behaviour (e.g. delayed responses, post-storm recovery, unstable openings). These observations motivate and inform the analytical dashboards and methods presented below.

Propagation Analysis Dashboard interactive

Exploratory analysis of SNR, distance, band activity and geomagnetic indices (Kp), including adaptive binning and outlier/context views.

Passive TID Monitor (WSPR “Corridors”) time-series

Detection of medium-scale TIDs using WSPR spot residuals, rolling statistics, and Lomb–Scargle periodograms for unevenly sampled data.

QSO Take-Off Angle (TOA) Explorer geometry

Analytical exploration of inferred take-off angles and path geometry across bands, highlighting systematic effects and ambiguity regions.

PSK Live — Frequency Residuals (Experimental) experimental

Exploratory visualisation of short-term frequency offsets and clustering in live reception reports, intended to highlight transient “motion” or instability effects that may not be obvious in conventional summaries.

PSK History Dashboard long-term

Cumulative view (up to 365 days) of appended reception history, providing a longer baseline for directionality and distance distributions to separate persistent patterns from short-lived events.

Propagation Trend — Visual Climatology long-term

Long-term directional and geographic trend analysis derived from spot history, revealing time-of-day biases, regional drop zones, and seasonal propagation structure — Currently in build phase.

Interactive Modelling & Simulation

DX Hunter simulation

Work-in-progress interactive simulation that “gamifies” HF propagation using live solar and space-weather inputs. Real-time condition data are translated into changing propagation state, band weighting, greyline effects, signal behaviour, and operator decision penalties, making it a compact behavioural model of noisy real-world operating conditions rather than a purely scripted game.

Station & System Characterisation

Overall QSO Analysis Report summary

Aggregate analysis of station performance, including distance distributions, band utilisation, and propagation-mode inference.

Antenna Pattern & Radiation Analysis modelling

Modelling and empirical analysis of antenna behaviour by band, integrating azimuth/elevation characteristics with observed performance.